Iran’s crises in 2019 can herald a new era. Political and socioeconomic developments will signal definite Iran’s crises in 2019.
The year 2018 ended with the Velayat-e Faqih’s regime engulfed by internal and international challenges. The regime is sinking deeper and deeper in its crisis on daily basis, due to political, economic, and social events. Iran experts see 2019 as a destiny-making year for this country.
Iran’s crises in 2019: the main issues
JCPOA & SPV
One of Iran’s crises in 2019 will be the issues of the nuclear deal and the “Special Purpose Vehicle” (SPV) for its financial transactions.
Since USA’s withdrawal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the re-imposition of sanctions, the Iranian regime and its lobbies are facing serious blows.
Europe’s economic promises could not prevent its companies from leaving Iran. The EU tried to mitigate the crisis by setting up a special purpose vehicle (SPV). But none of the European countries have ever been willing to be its host, in fear of US sanctions and punishment.
As the US sanctions bit, the IRI faces a dilemma. It must either encounter the US sanctions or accept serious retreats. But in both cases; confrontation or retreat will provide a good opportunity for further uprisings in the current explosive conditions of the Iranian society.
Other Iran’s crisis in 2019 is its irremediable domestic ones. The IRI will face serious and fatal economic situations as well as more intense protests.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s inflation rate for 2019 is at 34.1% and its negative economic growth rate is down to 3.6%.
The IMF predicts Iran’s economic collapse in 2019. The mullahs are facing difficult days ahead. So as the current situation persists, the fall of the mullahs’ regime comes more to the sight.
The dire living conditions of the Iranian people have erupted volcanic protests in Iranian cities.
Iran’s crisis in 2019 is not limited to domestic ones, its regional policy its other fatal abyss.
So far, the Islamic Republic is continuing its meddling in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon to develop its ideological influence and further its dependent militias in the region.
Considering Iran’s economic, social and political situation, the regime has to make a choice; either give up its warmongering policies in the region or pay a high price for it.
Another element of Iran’s crisis in 2019 is that it will be held accountable for its terrorist operations and plots around the world. At the end of 2018 and early 2019, we have witnessed that mullahs regime’s dispatch of terrorists under the guise of diplomats backlashed and bear fruit in arrests, expulsions and trials of its terrorist diplomats as well as imposing sanctions on its MOIS.
The terror plots organized through regime’s embassies resulted in the expulsion of its diplomats from Netherlands, France, and Albania (its ambassador to Albania was a subject of this expulsion). Assadollah Assadi its diplomat in Vienna and the plotter of a bomb attack against the NCRI gathering in Paris in June 2018, and the deliverer of the bomb was arrested in Germany and then extradited to Belgium for trial. So the perspective for 2019 would be MOIS in FTO lists.
The Iranian regime’s actions and plans were run by its embassies and led to the expulsion of its diplomats in the Netherlands, France and particularly their ambassador and first secretary of the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Albania.
Germany transferred the diplomat to Belgium for trial, where he was charged with preparing a terrorist attack against the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Denmark also foiled a terroristic plot planned by the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence.
Other major crises for the Mullahs regime in 2019 will be the probable death of Khamenei, the current leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. As we say in Persian: When the ground gets hard the cows gore each other, and that would be the case of the regime’s factions then. Khamenei’s death will certainly lead to conflicts over his successor which will accelerate the regime’s overthrow.
Mullahs regime’s prime enemy
But the main parameter that will guide Iran’s crisis in 2019 towards its downfall, is the National Council of the Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and its core force the PMOI/MEK; the only democratic alternative to the regime.,
Via its resistance units inside Iran, the PMOI/MEK is leading the protests against the regime. There is no doubt that the utmost challenge that the regime would be facing is the PMOI/MEK and the resistance units, and that’s the cardinal of Iran’s crisis in 2019.