In 2005, the Iranian regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei did not have today’s situation. Iran’s society was not also in the same economic, political, and social crises. In 2005 Khamenei made his regime unipolar and appointed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. Khamenei fully supported Ahmadinejad to the extent that he said: My thoughts are closer to Ahmadinejad than Rafsanjani.
However, it did not take long that Ahmadinejad to disobeyed, then became disobedient. Moreover, now, he is annoying Khamenei. Khamenei cannot arrest and imprison him because he was the president who said he was the closest to him.
The very same situation is repeating as the regime’s sham presidential elections draw closer to the start.
Another example: they said they want to bring in a military president once seven heads from the IRGC lined up, and none of them agrees to step down in favor of the other, each having the number of thugs behind them. Therefore, the faction that takes over the presidency tomorrow will not be accepted by those other gangs.
Suppose one of the current or former commanders of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) becomes president. Does Hossein Salami, the current commander of the IRGC, accept him? Except that the faction of Hassan Rouhani and the so-called reformists do not accept it. The Iranian people, too, never accept any of the regime’s factions.
Within the IRGC, several factions will oppose such a possible scenario. So, this scenario cannot work. Then there are the contradictions and deadlocks that Khamenei must answer, what he wants to do with the nuclear negotiation with the Western powers, what he wants to do with the sanctions?
In these circumstances, every day, we witness the regime’s weaknesses and how its policies are intensifying crises in Iran. Examples of infiltration in the regime and its factional feuds show mullahs’ weakness. The current Covid-19 crisis and Iranian people’s poverty are effects of the regime’s wrong policies. How does Khamenei want to find a way out? What does he want to do with the terrible Covid-19 outbreak?
Khamenei started an inhumane covid-19 policy, and through cover-up and inaction, tried to use the mass casualties as a barrier against people’s uprising. Now, the situation is out of his control.
Now, how he wants to get out of all these deadlocks? Today the economy is collapsing. What does Khamenei do with this broken economy?
Considering all the parameters mentioned, it is safe to say that Khamenei cannot make much change because the regime’s foundations have become very weak. More importantly, Iranian society is in a revolutionary position and ready to rise.
